Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Q: Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Prediction markets currently price this at 59%. A YES share costs 59.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 69.5% over 1.7mo.

2nd Largest Company end of September?$13k liquidity$4k volumecloses 1.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 59.0¢
Implied chance: 59.0%
Return if right: 69.5%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 169.5 shares at 59.0¢ each.

YES wins: $169.49 back, a profit of $69.49. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $70.94.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 42.0¢
Implied chance: 42.0%
Return if right: 138.1%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 238.1 shares at 42.0¢ each.

NO wins: $238.10 back, a profit of $138.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $140.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 01:34 AM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.