Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.7¢
- Implied chance
- 7.7%
- Return if right
- 1198.7%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 1298.7 shares at 7.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1298.70 back, a profit of $1198.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $99.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $1298.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.4¢
- Implied chance
- 93.4%
- Return if right
- 7.1%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 107.1 shares at 93.4¢ each.
NO wins: $107.07 back, a profit of $7.07. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- An arts school where Epstein allegedly preyed on students reveals decades of abuseNPR · 45m ago
- New Mexico attorney general explains why he's suing DOJ over Epstein filesCBS News · 4d ago
- New Mexico AG sues DOJ over Epstein files he says are needed for state probeABC News · 5d ago
- New Mexico sues US Justice Department for impeding Epstein probeAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- New Mexico suing DOJ, Blanche for access to unredacted Epstein records in Zorro Ranch investigationThe Hill · 5d ago
- New Mexico sues DOJ and Todd Blanche, alleging they blocked Epstein probeNBC News · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? ”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the incarceration to information contained in those released files. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.