Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.2¢
- Implied chance
- 4.2%
- Return if right
- 2281.0%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.
YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $2309.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.9¢
- Implied chance
- 95.9%
- Return if right
- 4.3%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 104.3 shares at 95.9¢ each.
NO wins: $104.28 back, a profit of $4.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Federal authorities investigating attorney, accountant linked to Epstein’s estate, source saysNBC News · 13h ago
- EXCLUSIVE: Ossoff challenged to return Epstein-linked donation or retract ‘Epstein class’ attackFox News · 1d ago
- Rosie O’Donnell Says ABC Blocked Her From Having Jeffrey Epstein Survivors on ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live’: ‘They Were Certain That Could Not Happen’Variety · 2d ago
- The House left town, but Hegseth impeachment, Epstein and a funding fight are waitingAxios · 6d ago
- Khanna, Massie say they can force another Epstein voteAxios · 6d ago
- Blanche warned of contempt risk in Epstein files caseAxios · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? ”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the incarceration to information contained in those released files. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.