Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
YES wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $34.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $334.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.87.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 04:10 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- US Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for the first time in three yearsFrance 24 · 18d ago
- What to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 yearsAl Jazeera · 18d ago
- US Federal Reserve defies Trump with interest rate hikeFrance 24 · 18d ago
- US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023Yahoo Finance · 18d ago
- US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023The Guardian · 18d ago
- Trump admin’s fraud crackdown targets foreigners accused of infiltrating US federal programsFox News · 24d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.