Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 95.5¢
- Implied chance
- 95.5%
- Return if right
- 4.7%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 104.7 shares at 95.5¢ each.
YES wins: $104.71 back, a profit of $4.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 5.9¢
- Implied chance
- 5.9%
- Return if right
- 1594.9%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 1694.9 shares at 5.9¢ each.
NO wins: $1694.92 back, a profit of $1594.92. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $228.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $1823.08.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.