Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.3¢
- Implied chance
- 2.3%
- Return if right
- 4247.8%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 4347.8 shares at 2.3¢ each.
YES wins: $4347.83 back, a profit of $4247.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1534.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $5782.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.