Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.0¢
- Implied chance
- 27.0%
- Return if right
- 270.4%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 370.4 shares at 27.0¢ each.
YES wins: $370.37 back, a profit of $270.37. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $74.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israeli Defense Contractor Beats Earnings Estimates; Stock Sinks Over Iran War RenewalYahoo Finance · 5h ago
- Actress Swell Ariel Or takes advocacy for Israeli women further in new film ‘Tankistas’Fox News · 7h ago
- Israeli settler violence is ‘clear state terrorism’Al Jazeera · 8h ago
- Colombia’s far-right government recognises Israeli claim over Golan HeightsAl Jazeera · 15h ago
- Israeli forces kill one in Gaza as another body recovered from rubbleAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Israeli settler attacks rise as West Bank residents lose landAl Jazeera · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.