Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.4¢
- Implied chance
- 4.4%
- Return if right
- 2172.7%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 2272.7 shares at 4.4¢ each.
YES wins: $2272.73 back, a profit of $2172.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $625.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $2798.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.5¢
- Implied chance
- 97.5%
- Return if right
- 2.6%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 102.6 shares at 97.5¢ each.
NO wins: $102.56 back, a profit of $2.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in bef…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.