Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $143.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 1, 04:27 AM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Other outcomes in Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?