Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $150.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $2050.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.7¢
- Implied chance
- 95.7%
- Return if right
- 4.5%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 104.5 shares at 95.7¢ each.
NO wins: $104.49 back, a profit of $4.49. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".