Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
YES wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 16.0¢
- Implied chance
- 16.0%
- Return if right
- 525.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.
NO wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anthropic is turning Claude Code’s auto mode on by defaultTechCrunch · 1d ago
- ByteDance trains massive AI model in bid to rival AnthropicArs Technica · 3d ago
- Anthropic will design its own hardware to power ClaudeArs Technica · 4d ago
- Blackstone Has Pitched Mega Debt Package for Anthropic Chip DealBloomberg · 4d ago
- Amazon's Stake in Anthropic Could Be Worth Over $200 Billion if the AI Startup's Reported IPO Valuation Holds. Should Amazon Investors Care?Yahoo Finance · 4d ago
- Dem senator presses OpenAI, Anthropic for answers in AI hacking probeFox News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.