Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

Q: Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 68%. A YES share costs 68.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 47.1% over 2.6mo.

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)$10k liquidity$275 volumecloses 2.6mo

AITechAI Rankings

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 68.0¢
Implied chance: 68.0%
Return if right: 47.1%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.

YES wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 33.0¢
Implied chance: 33.0%
Return if right: 203.0%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.

NO wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 15, 02:57 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".