Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
YES wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
NO wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anthropic is turning Claude Code’s auto mode on by defaultTechCrunch · 21h ago
- ByteDance trains massive AI model in bid to rival AnthropicArs Technica · 3d ago
- Anthropic will design its own hardware to power ClaudeArs Technica · 4d ago
- Blackstone Has Pitched Mega Debt Package for Anthropic Chip DealBloomberg · 4d ago
- Amazon's Stake in Anthropic Could Be Worth Over $200 Billion if the AI Startup's Reported IPO Valuation Holds. Should Amazon Investors Care?Yahoo Finance · 4d ago
- Dem senator presses OpenAI, Anthropic for answers in AI hacking probeFox News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.