Will another party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Q: Will another party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11011.1% over 1.4mo.

NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?$8k liquidity$405 volumecloses 1.4mo

PoliticsNew Zealand ElectionGlobal ElectionsElectionsNZInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.9¢
Implied chance: 0.9%
Return if right: 11011.1%
Spread cost: 34%

If you put in $100

You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.

YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $16566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.60.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 25, 09:55 AM2 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.