Will Andrea Horwath win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?

Q: Will Andrea Horwath win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 61%. A YES share costs 61.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 63.9% over 2.4mo.

Hamilton Mayoral Election$295 liquidity$0 volumecloses 2.4mo

CanadaPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 61.0¢
Implied chance: 61.0%
Return if right: 63.9%
Spread cost: 60%

If you put in $100

You get 163.9 shares at 61.0¢ each.

YES wins: $163.93 back, a profit of $63.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $95.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 84.0¢
Implied chance: 84.0%
Return if right: 19.0%
Spread cost: 70%

If you put in $100

You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.

NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 14, 09:12 AM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 2026 Hamilton, ON mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Hamilton as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Hamilton.