Will Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?

Q: Will Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 45%. A YES share costs 45.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 122.2% over 9.9mo.

Michoacán Governor Election Winner$193 liquidity$62 volumecloses 9.9mo

MexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 45.0¢
Implied chance: 45.0%
Return if right: 122.2%
Spread cost: 58%

If you put in $100

You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.

YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $169.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $292.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 81%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $34.23.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:28 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Michoacán on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.