Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $56.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Satellite images show Gaza in ruins three years into Israel’s genocidal warAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- 'Nobody Wants This' star accuses Israel of 'genocide'Fox News · 4d ago
- Pubs in Ireland refuse to screen Israel match in protest over Gaza genocideAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Netanyahu calls Israel’s war in Gaza ‘opposite of genocide’ in UN speechThe Guardian · 8d ago
- Erdogan accuses Israel of ‘genocidal mindset’ at UNGAAl Jazeera · 10d ago
- Erdogan slams Israel’s ‘genocidal mindset’ in blistering UN addressAl Jazeera · 10d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilt…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.