Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Q: Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 63%. A YES share costs 63.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 58.7% over 21d.

3rd Largest Company end of August?$9k liquidity$67k volumecloses 21d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 63.0¢
Implied chance: 63.0%
Return if right: 58.7%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.

YES wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $65.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 42.0¢
Implied chance: 42.0%
Return if right: 138.1%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 238.1 shares at 42.0¢ each.

NO wins: $238.10 back, a profit of $138.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $153.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 04:25 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.