Will Alex Allinson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $428.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Alex Allinson7.0%
- Alfred Cannan32.5%
- Chris Thomas20.5%
- Jane Poole-Wilson13.0%
- Lawrie Hooper5.5%
- Rob Callister5.0%
Latest: Aug 10, 04:29 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Alex Allinson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- Will Rob Callister be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- Will Lawrie Hooper be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?