Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.6¢
- Implied chance
- 0.6%
- Return if right
- 16566.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 16666.7 shares at 0.6¢ each.
YES wins: $16666.67 back, a profit of $16566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $19900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 03:30 AM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ethiopia warns of ‘destruction’ as Tigray rebels launch offensiveAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- New fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region raises fears of a return to the country's civil warDeutsche Welle · 10h ago
- Ethiopia faces renewed war as armed groups launch offensiveAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Tigrayan Forces Mobilize Against the Central Government in EthiopiaThe New York Times · 11h ago
- Ethiopia: Where does the Tigray conflict go from here?Deutsche Welle · 12h ago
- Can Ethiopia’s seven-group rebel alliance challenge Abiy Ahmed?Al Jazeera · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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