Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.9¢
- Implied chance
- 6.9%
- Return if right
- 1349.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1449.3 shares at 6.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1449.28 back, a profit of $1349.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $89.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.9¢
- Implied chance
- 93.9%
- Return if right
- 6.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 106.5 shares at 93.9¢ each.
NO wins: $106.50 back, a profit of $6.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Alberta to vote on whether to stay a part of CanadaCBS News · 4d ago
- Alberta Plans New Royalty Incentives to Spur Oil ProductionYahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Avenrock Energy to purchase Parallax Energy Operating in AlbertaYahoo Finance · 9d ago
- Canadian Oil Merger Spotlights Alberta BoomBloomberg · 15d ago
- Alberta Premier Rejects Using Oil as a Weapon Against TrumpYahoo Finance · 28d ago
- Arrow Exploration buys into Canada with $8.9 million Alberta oil dealYahoo Finance · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.