Will Akhmat Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?

Q: Will Akhmat Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 16566.7% over 1.4mo.

Chechnya Gubernatorial Election Winner$17k liquidity$819 volumecloses 1.4mo

RussiaPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.6¢
Implied chance: 0.6%
Return if right: 16566.7%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 16666.7 shares at 0.6¢ each.

YES wins: $16666.67 back, a profit of $16566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:19 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Chechnya on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Chechnya and Russia, including the Election Commission of Chechnya and the Central Election Commission of Russia.