Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
YES wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 15.0¢
- Implied chance
- 15.0%
- Return if right
- 566.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 666.7 shares at 15.0¢ each.
NO wins: $666.67 back, a profit of $566.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Aisha Wahab85.5%
- Victor Aguilar Jr.0.1%
- Melissa Hernandez15.2%
- Wendy Huang0.5%
- Rakhi Israni Singh0.1%
- Matt Ortega0.1%
Latest: Aug 10, 06:42 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Other outcomes in CA-14 Special Election Winner?
- Will Victor Aguilar Jr. win the CA-14 special election?
- Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?
- Will Carin Elam win the CA-14 special election?
- Will Wendy Huang win the CA-14 special election?
- Will Matt Ortega win the CA-14 special election?
- Will Rakhi Israni Singh win the CA-14 special election?