Will 'Aisake Hoatatau Finau win the Ongo Niua 17 by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $307.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $733.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 61%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- 'Aisake Hoatatau Finau13.0%
- Sitiveni Selui1.1%
- Sione Tuifio Hui15.9%
- Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala23.8%
- 'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana19.0%
Latest: Sep 24, 04:13 AM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).