Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?

Q: Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 69%. A YES share costs 69.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 44.9% over 12d.

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner$3k liquidity$4k volumecloses 12d

CanadaPoliticsElectionsby electionMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 69.0¢
Implied chance: 69.0%
Return if right: 44.9%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.

YES wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $49.25.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 35.0¢
Implied chance: 35.0%
Return if right: 185.7%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.

NO wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $203.03.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 22, 05:00 AM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).