Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.5¢
- Implied chance
- 2.5%
- Return if right
- 3900.0%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 4000.0 shares at 2.5¢ each.
YES wins: $4000.00 back, a profit of $3900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $5455.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).