Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
YES wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $68.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $143.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 75.0¢
- Implied chance
- 75.0%
- Return if right
- 33.3%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.
NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $69.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:18 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Germany news: Berlin to step up drone security researchDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Berlin clubs struggle as drink sales dry up and costs riseDeutsche Welle · 3d ago
- ‘Babylon Berlin’ Going Out With a Bang, and A Warning for DemocracyThe Hollywood Reporter · 5d ago
- Hundreds of thousands attend Pride events in UK and mainland Europe after deadly Berlin attackSky News · 9d ago
- Berlin Pride attack: Are German juvenile courts too lenient?Deutsche Welle · 11d ago
- German Muslims are alarmed by the Islamist terror attack in BerlinDeutsche Welle · 12d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Other outcomes in Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?
- Will AfD win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will AfD win 20-22 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?