Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 74.0¢
- Implied chance
- 74.0%
- Return if right
- 35.1%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 135.1 shares at 74.0¢ each.
YES wins: $135.14 back, a profit of $35.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $39.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 31.0¢
- Implied chance
- 31.0%
- Return if right
- 222.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.
NO wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $250.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Adama Barrow72.0%
- Talib Ahmed Bensouda31.6%
- Bakary K. Badjie9.8%
- Ousainou Darboe12.0%
- Essa Faal4.6%
- Mohamed Al Amin Bah6.6%
Latest: Sep 24, 05:46 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- US to Return $2.5 Million From Asset Tied to Ex-Gambian DictatorBloomberg · 5d ago
- Gambian leader pledges halt to rolling blackouts as protests turn violentAl Jazeera · 15d ago
- The Gambian women turning grief into songAl Jazeera · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Independent Electoral Commission of The Gambia (https://www.iec.gm/).
Source: https://www.iec.gm/
Other outcomes in Gambia Presidential Election Winner
- Will Mama Kandeh win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- Will Mohamed Al Amin Bah win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- Will Essa Faal win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- Will Ousainou Darboe win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- Will Bakary K. Badjie win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- Will Talib Ahmed Bensouda win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?