Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Q: Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 34%. A YES share costs 33.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 196.7% over 29d.

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner$573 liquidity$6k volumecloses 29d

primary electionsGovernor PrimaryRepublican PrimaryRhode Island PrimarySeptember 9 PrimariesUS Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 33.7¢
Implied chance: 33.7%
Return if right: 196.7%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 296.7 shares at 33.7¢ each.

YES wins: $296.74 back, a profit of $196.74. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.97.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 70.8¢
Implied chance: 70.8%
Return if right: 41.2%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 141.2 shares at 70.8¢ each.

NO wins: $141.24 back, a profit of $41.24. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 11, 05:18 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Why Rhode Island may oust a sitting governor over a bridgePolitico · 3d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republ…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.