Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.6¢
- Implied chance
- 12.6%
- Return if right
- 693.7%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 793.7 shares at 12.6¢ each.
YES wins: $793.65 back, a profit of $693.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $87.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $781.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 89.9¢
- Implied chance
- 89.9%
- Return if right
- 11.2%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 111.2 shares at 89.9¢ each.
NO wins: $111.23 back, a profit of $11.23. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 03:08 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Alaska Democrats back independent Bill Hill in statewide House raceThe Washington Post · 1mo ago
- Independent Bill Hill advances in race for Alaska’s GOP-held House seatThe Hill · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources, except if that candidate is a listed option. Candidates who are listed options will not be considered to represent any party for purposes of this market, regardless of any subsequent caucus decision. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).