Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.7¢
- Implied chance
- 6.7%
- Return if right
- 1392.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 1492.5 shares at 6.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1492.54 back, a profit of $1392.54. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $1415.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.5¢
- Implied chance
- 93.5%
- Return if right
- 7.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 107.0 shares at 93.5¢ each.
NO wins: $106.95 back, a profit of $6.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".