Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 65%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
YES wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $71.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $110.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 77.0¢
- Implied chance
- 77.0%
- Return if right
- 29.9%
- Spread cost
- 67%
If you put in $100
You get 129.9 shares at 77.0¢ each.
NO wins: $129.87 back, a profit of $29.87. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $60.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $90.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On June 15, 2026, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the UK government’s intention to ban children under the age of 16 from accessing social media services. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ban on the use of social media by children under the age of 16 within the United Kingdom takes effect by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ban will qualify when legislation or a mandate from Ofcom or another UK government regulator is effectively imposed on any group of social media platforms, requiring them to prevent children under the age of 16 from accessing their services, with regulatory penalties to be applied for noncompliance. A qualifying ban must be in effect against a group of social media platforms, defined as consumer-facing online services whose primary function is to view, share, create, and interact with user-generated content. An age restriction applying to online streaming (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, etc.) or pornographic (PornHub, OnlyFans, etc.) services will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, user-generated video and live-streaming websites like YouTube, Twitch, Kick, and Rumble will qualify as social media platforms. To qualify, a ban must be effectively imposed on social media platforms by the listed date. The enactment of legislation or announcement of future policy without policy effectiveness will not qualify. While a qualifying ban may include exemptions for certain platforms and categories of social media, like direct messaging, a targeted age restriction policy applying to only one company or platform will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom, including Ofcom (https://www.ofcom.org.uk), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.