Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.7¢
- Implied chance
- 2.7%
- Return if right
- 3603.7%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 3703.7 shares at 2.7¢ each.
YES wins: $3703.70 back, a profit of $3603.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1174.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $4778.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.6¢
- Implied chance
- 98.6%
- Return if right
- 1.4%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 101.4 shares at 98.6¢ each.
NO wins: $101.42 back, a profit of $1.42. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.