Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.5¢
- Implied chance
- 9.5%
- Return if right
- 952.6%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 1052.6 shares at 9.5¢ each.
YES wins: $1052.63 back, a profit of $952.63. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $969.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.8¢
- Implied chance
- 90.8%
- Return if right
- 10.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 110.1 shares at 90.8¢ each.
NO wins: $110.13 back, a profit of $10.13. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- US-backed Israel-Morocco deal deepens Abraham Accords amid growing regional threatsFox News · 8d ago
- US-backed Israel-Morocco deal deepens Abraham Accords amid growing regional threatsFox News · 8d ago
- Trump admin sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress, says Abraham Accords still keyABC News · 1mo ago
- New power axis in the making? Three military heavyweights lock arms, complicating Abraham Accords strategyFox News · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.