Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?

Q: Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 20%. A YES share costs 20.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 400.0% over 1.1mo.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?$8k liquidity$0 volumecloses 1.1mo

OilIranTrumpHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 20.0¢
Implied chance: 20.0%
Return if right: 400.0%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.

YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $733.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.0¢
Implied chance: 96.0%
Return if right: 4.2%
Spread cost: 69%

If you put in $100

You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.

NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 28, 07:38 PM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.