Will 4 or more Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.2¢
- Implied chance
- 2.2%
- Return if right
- 4445.5%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 4545.5 shares at 2.2¢ each.
YES wins: $4545.45 back, a profit of $4445.45. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3146.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $7592.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 70%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Manchin calls for more independents in Congress: ‘People want a little bit more normalcy'The Hill · 1mo ago
- Joe Manchin Pushes for More Independents to Join CongressThe New York Times · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will 4 or more Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market. In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.