Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 45.0¢
- Implied chance
- 45.0%
- Return if right
- 122.2%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.
YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $18.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $140.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 62.0¢
- Implied chance
- 62.0%
- Return if right
- 61.3%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.
NO wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $70.94.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 30, 12:30 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- CENTCOM says Strait of Hormuz is open, shipping companies not convinced as Iran war hits 6 monthsCBS News · 1d ago
- U.S. says pipelines will make Strait of Hormuz irrelevant. Energy experts disagreeNPR · 2d ago
- Centcom says Iranian sea mines cleared from Strait of Hormuz transit routesThe Hill · 2d ago
- Iran says it will name its terms for reopening Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Iran war live: Tehran prepares conditions to open Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Iran and Oman near a temporary deal on the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Other outcomes in How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
- Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?
- Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?
- Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?
- Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?