Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $118.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 23, 07:25 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Questions rise as US claims deeper control of Strait of HormuzThe Hill · 9h ago
- Trump says he views strait of Hormuz as ‘American territory’The Guardian · 2d ago
- Trump talks up White House ballroom and says he views strait of Hormuz as ‘American territory’ – as it happenedThe Guardian · 2d ago
- IMO Contradicts Trump Claims on Strait of HormuzBloomberg · 2d ago
- U.S. using stealth operation to move oil through Strait of Hormuz, sources sayCBS News · 3d ago
- Oil Is Up 36% and the Strait of Hormuz Is Still Closed. The QQQI Family Runs a 14.75% Energy FundYahoo Finance · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Other outcomes in How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
- Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?
- Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?
- Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?
- Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?