Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 75%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
YES wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $117.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $156.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 90%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $57.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $63.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Live updates: Iran responds to Trump's Strait of Hormuz comments; Katie Miller's podcast continues to growThe Hill · 3h ago
- Iran rejects Trump's 'delusions' on making Strait of Hormuz a US territoryThe Hill · 4h ago
- Is China seeking to copy Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade around Taiwan?Al Jazeera · 4h ago
- Iran rejects ‘delusions’ after Trump says he wants the Strait of Hormuz to be a U.S. territoryNBC News · 5h ago
- US President Trump says he will declare Strait of Hormuz US territoryAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- Trump says he will declare Strait of Hormuz a US ‘territory’ amid Iran warAl Jazeera · 18h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.