KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.1¢
- Implied chance
- 6.1%
- Return if right
- 1539.3%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 1639.3 shares at 6.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1639.34 back, a profit of $1539.34. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $380.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $1920.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.2¢
- Implied chance
- 96.2%
- Return if right
- 4.0%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 104.0 shares at 96.2¢ each.
NO wins: $103.95 back, a profit of $3.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.21.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.