Will it rain in Washington, DC on August 22?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 93%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
YES wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 2.8¢
- Implied chance
- 2.8%
- Return if right
- 3471.4%
- Spread cost
- 49%
If you put in $100
You get 3571.4 shares at 2.8¢ each.
NO wins: $3571.43 back, a profit of $3471.43. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3325.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $6796.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Washington, DC98.8%
- Philadelphia, PA100.0%
- New Orleans, LA1.6%
- Miami, FL0.1%
- Phoenix, AZ3.8%
- Chicago, IL0.1%
Latest: Aug 23, 02:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Several drivers hit with penalties ahead of IndyCar Freedom 250 Grand Prix in Washington, DCFox News · 2h ago
- How to watch IndyCar’s Freedom 250 Grand Prix race on Washington DC streetsFox News · 4h ago
- Woman charged over vandalism of World War II Memorial in Washington, DCAl Jazeera · 9d ago
- National Guard deployment to Washington, DC, will cost US roughly $1.4bnAl Jazeera · 19d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will it rain in Washington, DC on August 22?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Washington, DC records measurable precipitation on August 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for KDCA: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for KDCA.
Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DCA&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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