West Virginia passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
YES wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $389.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $1718.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “West Virginia passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The West Virginia Citizenship Requirement to Vote in West Virginia Elections Amendment (SJR 9) is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in West Virginia in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the West Virginia Constitution to provide that only citizens of the United States may vote in elections in West Virginia. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the West Virginia statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of West Virginia, including the West Virginia Secretary of State (https://sos.wv.gov/).