Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.8¢
- Implied chance
- 7.8%
- Return if right
- 1182.1%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 1282.1 shares at 7.8¢ each.
YES wins: $1282.05 back, a profit of $1182.05. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $233.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $1415.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.6¢
- Implied chance
- 94.6%
- Return if right
- 5.7%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 105.7 shares at 94.6¢ each.
NO wins: $105.71 back, a profit of $5.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.