Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.6¢
- Implied chance
- 0.6%
- Return if right
- 16566.7%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 16666.7 shares at 0.6¢ each.
YES wins: $16666.67 back, a profit of $16566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Venezuelan Leader Rodríguez Vows ‘Orderly’ Return to DemocracyBloomberg · 3h ago
- Trump meets US-backed Venezuelan president for first time since Maduro seizedBBC News · 17h ago
- Venezuelans protest interim leader Delcy Rodriguez at UN headquartersAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Austin police release new video of Venezuelan man shot by ICECBS News · 1d ago
- Bodycam footage captures moments after ICE shooting of Venezuelan migrant in AustinFox News · 1d ago
- ICE officer who shot Venezuelan man wasn't wearing body camera, sources sayCBS News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by Septe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify. The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.