US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 93.1¢
- Implied chance
- 93.1%
- Return if right
- 7.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 107.4 shares at 93.1¢ each.
YES wins: $107.41 back, a profit of $7.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 7.6¢
- Implied chance
- 7.6%
- Return if right
- 1215.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 1315.8 shares at 7.6¢ each.
NO wins: $1315.79 back, a profit of $1215.79. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $63.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $1279.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “US x China tariff agreement by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.