US strike on Mexico by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $65.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $1076.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Swiss Re announces India and Mexico partnershipsYahoo Finance · 43m ago
- Slain California fire captain’s wife admits murder after Mexico capture, serving time for killing first spouseFox News · 2d ago
- US Partly Resumes Operations in Mexico’s Avocado State MichoacanBloomberg · 3d ago
- Flesh-eating screwworms feast on humans in Mexico; human cases top 500Ars Technica · 3d ago
- US police officer accused of killing three people in Mexico arrested at borderThe Guardian · 3d ago
- Mexico and Peru restore diplomatic relations after asylum rowBBC News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “US strike on Mexico by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.