US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 50.0¢
- Implied chance
- 50.0%
- Return if right
- 100.0%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.
YES wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $32.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $132.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 64.0¢
- Implied chance
- 64.0%
- Return if right
- 56.3%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 156.3 shares at 64.0¢ each.
NO wins: $156.25 back, a profit of $56.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $75.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.