US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.9¢
- Implied chance
- 2.9%
- Return if right
- 3348.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.
YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $188.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $3536.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russian attacks kill eight people across Ukraine as US steps up diplomacyAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- Ukraine anger as EU removes Russian oligarchs from sanctions listBBC News · 2d ago
- Russian strikes on Ukraine kill three as Zelenskyy in US for UN summitAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Ukraine targets Moscow with hundreds of drones on final day of Russian electionThe Guardian · 4d ago
- Poland's prime minister warns of Russian 'accidental' attacks on Ukraine's alliesNPR · 6d ago
- Russians go to polls against backdrop of Ukraine war and Putin’s tightening gripThe Guardian · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.