U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
YES wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $1961.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.2¢
- Implied chance
- 95.2%
- Return if right
- 5.0%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 105.0 shares at 95.2¢ each.
NO wins: $105.04 back, a profit of $5.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Serviceman kills 3 civilians, 1 soldier in Russian-held CrimeaCBS News · 6d ago
- Soldier kills four in gun rampage in Russian-occupied CrimeaBBC News · 6d ago
- Russian civilians killed in Crimea as Ukraine war takes its toll on Black Sea shoresFrance 24 · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.