U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.9¢
- Implied chance
- 2.9%
- Return if right
- 3348.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.
YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $188.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $3536.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Venezuela blocks 3 attempts by opposition leader Machado to return, team saysCBS News · 1d ago
- Nobel laureate Machado: ‘Illegitimate’ Venezuela regime has no right to strike US oil dealThe Guardian · 21d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 3…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.