US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Blockstream Debuts Swaps, Allowing Bitcoiners to Move Between Lightning and Main Network With EaseBitcoin Magazine · 1h ago
- Trump Media’s bitcoin holdings shrink as crypto losses hit $361 millionCoinDesk · 2h ago
- Bitcoin ATMs Pulled in Australia as Regulators Signal Wider CrackdownDecrypt · 2h ago
- ETFs Look Safer After Bitcoin Hack, Small Caps | ETF IQ 8/10/2026Bloomberg · 2h ago
- BTCPay Server Offers a 3 Bitcoin Bounty for Recovery of Stolen Funds After Wallet ExploitBitcoin Magazine · 2h ago
- Strategy builds $4.75 billion cash cushion as only bitcoin isn’t enough for investorsCoinDesk · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.